Future HOFers

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Future HOFers

Postby Drew Corleone on Wed May 31, 2006 8:20 am

We've probably had this thread before, but as I don't really want to work today I'm going through Baseball Reference and looking for potential HOFers on each active roster. Feel free to dicsuss and include your own totals (I just ask that you maintain the format and also keep it serious)

Houston Astros

In: Roger Clemens (let's just assume he'll be an Astro officially before this thread dies), Craig Biggio, Jeff Bagwell
If he keeps doing what he's done: Roy Oswalt
Great career, but not quite Cooperstown material: Lance Berkman, Andy Pettitte
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Postby UTwiz on Wed May 31, 2006 8:25 am

Rangers:

In: No one

If he keeps doing what he's done: Mark Texierra, Mike Young
Can easily move into the category above: Hank Blalock
First ballot into "KVH Spare HOF": Rod Barajas, Buck Showwalter, base running coach, defensive outfield coach, Phil Nevin's landing strip facial hair
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Postby eochs on Wed May 31, 2006 8:45 am

Red Sox:

In: Curt Schilling, Manny Ramirez

Possible In: David Wells

If he keeps doing what he's done: Jon Papelbon :) (okay, i'm jumping the gun on this one by about 10-15 years)
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Postby UTwiz on Wed May 31, 2006 8:47 am

Ortiz?
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Postby Drew Corleone on Wed May 31, 2006 8:47 am

St. Louis Cardinals

In: Albert Pujols
If he keeps doing what he's done: no one
Maybe, but better step it up: Mark Mulder
Great career, but not quite Cooperstown material: Jim Edmonds, Larry Walker, Scott Rolen

I honestly think Pujols could retire as soon as he meets the eligibility requirement for consideration and probably be a first ballot guy. His career thus far has been remarkable in so many ways.

I struggled with Edmonds and Walker. Neither of them have career totals that suggest HOF (as outfielders, anyway), but you could still make a case for either one. Walker put up some amazing seasons (check his Jamesian benchmarks and he would appear to be a lock), but struggled with injuries, and will face opposition because of his production at Coors Field/Mile High. But he also has good credentials defensively. Of the two he stands a better chance at induction and I would not cry foul if the writers put him in. Edmonds has even better defensive credentials (eight gold gloves), but a look at similar batters through age 35 pulls up only one HOFer in the top 10.

Rolen has put together a solid career (six GGs, a ROY, four A-S appearances and one top-ten MVP through age 30), but is it HOF worthy? Then there's the question of his durability. He's struggled with injuries last season and this season, and how much more does he have in the tank?

Mulder has been solid so far. He was runner-up for the Cy Young in 2001, has a career ERA of 3.87, and he's still just 27. But compare him with Oswalt, and other than name recognition tell me which has had the better career thus far. I'm not saying that Mulder can't be Cooperstown-worthy, that he couldn't end up having a better career than Oswalt, or that it's an either-or between the two, but right now I just don't quite see Mulder in the HOF.
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Postby eochs on Wed May 31, 2006 8:51 am

UTwiz wrote:Ortiz?


a long shot... He is one of the most clutch hitters in the game right now and the only guy I would give him up for would be Pujols, but his career stats before the Sox are not so great... He needs another 7 or 8 years of .300 hitting and 40+ home runs to be seriously considered...
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Postby ChuckNorrisHorn on Wed May 31, 2006 8:54 am

lance can probably play for another 10-12 years and get in if he hits .300 and 30 each year....
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Postby Drew Corleone on Wed May 31, 2006 8:54 am

eochs wrote:Red Sox:

In: Curt Schilling, Manny Ramirez

Possible In: David Wells


Schill and Manny are slam dunks. I think Wells will fall into the "Great Career but no" camp.

Ortiz is not an HOFer... yet. He has a chance to put together a 5-6 year stretch worthy of consideration, and he's still only 29 (or 30).
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Postby Drew Corleone on Wed May 31, 2006 8:57 am

ChuckNorrisHorn wrote:lance can probably play for another 10-12 years and get in if he hits .300 and 30 each year....


But he'll be penalized for playing (a) in a lively ball era, and (b) in MMPUS. Plus he has problems staying healthy, so to say that he can play another 10 years, much less hit .300/30 for that duration, is saying a lot.

Ask me again about Lance five years from now.
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Postby UTwiz on Wed May 31, 2006 8:57 am

Yah, that's what I was getting at. I don't see Big Papi slowing down anytime soon. If we are projecting Pooholes to continue to succeed, why not Ortiz?
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Postby Bucharest on Wed May 31, 2006 8:58 am

Evan, with all due respect, you cannot be serious about Wells???

A 227-143 career record with a 4.06 career ERA......that might not even get him into the California Baseball Hall Of Fame, where he's from.
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Postby ChuckNorrisHorn on Wed May 31, 2006 9:00 am

ortiz is not that good over his career, hes enjoyed doubling in size with his rampant use of HGH and elephant steroids...have you seen pictures of this guy with the twins?

he's not any more clutch that KVH in the paint. take your redsox shades off
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Postby Bucharest on Wed May 31, 2006 9:01 am

And oh yeah, if Berkman continues to do what he's doing......he'll be a Hall of Famer......he just needs to stay healthy, which is an issue with him.
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Postby Drew Corleone on Wed May 31, 2006 9:10 am

UTwiz wrote:Yah, that's what I was getting at. I don't see Big Papi slowing down anytime soon. If we are projecting Pooholes to continue to succeed, why not Ortiz?


It's a little different. Pujols is an HOFer today, if her were yet eligible. Ortiz is not. Pujols has the best start to a career in MLB history.

Buch... I just don't know about Berk. In about six full seasons he's hit 170 HRs, has a .303 avg, has both three all star appearances and top ten MVP finishes. That's impressive, but are the numbers phenomenal? I don't think tubby-ass Berk has ever taken a supplement that didn't come from a Little Debbie box, but fair or not, he's going to be judged against juicers and by the fact that he played in a hitters ballpark (though MMPUS is not as homerific as it once was). Some writers will hold that against him. The best thing he has going for him are the MVP finishes, and I think doubling that (and maybe winning one) will go farther toward his potential induction that just maintaining 30/.300 for seven years (I refuse to believe he'll hold up for ten more).
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Postby Bucharest on Wed May 31, 2006 9:20 am

I don't think Albert Pujols is a HOF RIGHT NOW, he's played less than six full seasons.

And I just don't get the "steroid/supplement" era argument with Berkman. If there is one power hitter out there in MLB that cries "Look I'm on steroids" the least, I'm pretty sure it's Lance Berkman.......I mean, look at the guy, he hasn't gotten "bigger" since leaving Rice, but he has gotten fatter.

IF he plays only 10 more seasons at his with his current average of numbers, he'll finish with an above .300 average with right at around 500 homers and over 2,600 RBI.......I'm pretty sure that gets you into the HOF......especially if he hits that 500th homer.
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Postby eochs on Wed May 31, 2006 9:22 am

Bucharest wrote:Evan, with all due respect, you cannot be serious about Wells???

A 227-143 career record with a 4.06 career ERA......that might not even get him into the California Baseball Hall Of Fame, where he's from.


Yep, serious... Not saying he is a sure thing, but a possible HOF... Don't forget about him being 10-4 with a 3.15 ERA in the postseason with 2 WS Championships
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Postby eochs on Wed May 31, 2006 9:26 am

New York Yankees:

In: Derek Jeter, Slappy McBlueLips (ARod), Mariano Rivera, Randy Johnson, Gary Sheffield

Possible: Bernie Williams

A couple of more good years: Mike Mussina
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Postby Bucharest on Wed May 31, 2006 9:26 am

One other thing you have to consider is his relationship with the media, i.e. the voters.

With that in mind, I will go on record and say there is absolutely zero chance of David Wells ever making the Baseball Hall of Fame.

If Goose Gossage can't get into the HOF with his postseason performances and rings......than this guy has no chance.
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Postby AtlLonghorn on Wed May 31, 2006 9:26 am

Atlanta Braves:

In: John Smoltz. Will finish his career with 200 wins and 150 saves which puts him in company with Dennis Eckersley (Eck finished with 197 wins, but alot more saves, albeit in more years as a closer) and Eck is in the HOF. Smoltz is also potentially the best clutch pitcher in this era. He is 15-4 with a 2.66 ERA in the playoffs which gives him more wins than any pitcher in postseason history as well.

Possibly could get in- Andruw Jones. Widely regarded amongst baseball people as the best defensive outfielder in baseball, if he can get to 500 homeruns and 2500 hits which at his current average per season would take 7 seasons each (He's 29 so it's a possibility), I could see him getting serious consideration based alot on his defensive ability.

Chipper Jones was a possibility at one point but his offensive production continues to decline steadily.
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Postby Drew Corleone on Wed May 31, 2006 9:29 am

Okay, a couple of things:

re: Pujols... and those five-plus seasons are some of the best on record. Look at his similar batters through age 25. Seven are in the hall, and two others will be there. He's been among the top ten in the league in almost every single major offensive category every year he has played. He's 25 and has 225 HRs already. I know you have to play more than five years to be eligible for the HOF. But if his career ends five years from now, even if he's become a mediocre ballplayer (unlikely), I think he'll get in.

Re-read what I said about Berkman. I never indicated or even suggested he took steroids. I'm saying the majority of his career thus far has coincided with the height of the steroid era, and as such his numbers have not looked asremarkable, comparatively speaking, as they may have otherwise been. And again, ten more season is a HUGE "if."

My whole argument is that "at this point and time" Berkman has to step it up to become a HOFer (and part of stepping it up is staying healthy).
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Postby UTwiz on Wed May 31, 2006 9:36 am

Andruw would have to go Darryl Strawberry on us not to get in. I think he will end up being a shoe in.

I think Bernie could get in eventually, but it will take a year with only scrubs eligible. The guy won championships and was good in the postseason. He was never the best player at his position in the league, so that might hurt him.
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Postby Drew Corleone on Wed May 31, 2006 9:37 am

AtlLonghorn wrote:Atlanta Braves:

In: John Smoltz. Will finish his career with 200 wins and 150 saves which puts him in company with Dennis Eckersley (Eck finished with 197 wins, but alot more saves, albeit in more years as a closer) and Eck is in the HOF. Smoltz is also potentially the best clutch pitcher in this era. He is 15-4 with a 2.66 ERA in the playoffs which gives him more wins than any pitcher in postseason history as well.

Possibly could get in- Andruw Jones. Widely regarded amongst baseball people as the best defensive outfielder in baseball, if he can get to 500 homeruns and 2500 hits which at his current average per season would take 7 seasons each (He's 29 so it's a possibility), I could see him getting serious consideration based alot on his defensive ability.

Chipper Jones was a possibility at one point but his offensive production continues to decline steadily.


I think A Jones gets in, unless he falls off dramatically. His defense is incredible, and he'll probably get very close to 500 HRS, if not much more than that. Looking at his top ten similar hitters through age 28 there're 4 HOFers, and two future ones.

Chipper still has a pretty fair shot. Historically there are fewer 3Bs in Cooperstown than any other position. If he can get to 400 HRs (which should happen) I think he makes a worthy candidate. He's won an MVP and finished in the top ten four other times. He's also in the top ten active players in both slugging and on-base.
Last edited by Drew Corleone on Wed May 31, 2006 9:42 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Postby Bucharest on Wed May 31, 2006 9:37 am

In that case, I see your point, I just never associated "stepping it up" with being healthy......I consider that to mean "increasing your numbers", something I don't think he has to do to make the HOF.

And of course you and I both agree on Pujols, but he should then fall under the "If he keeps doing what he's done" category, because if he had a catastrophic arm injury in today's game that forced him to retire.....he doesn't make the HOF.

Again, this is all semantics, but it's fun to discuss.
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Postby TheDean176 on Wed May 31, 2006 9:38 am

Atlanta Braves:

In: Smoltz. I feel that Chipper will have done enough in his time with the Braves to get in. As will Andruw.

On his way: Jeff Francoeur. He will eventually become alot more complete hitter. Dale Murphy type. Offensive and defensive. And my surprise pick: Brian McCann. He will probably become the best hitting catcher in the National League for the next 10 years.
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Postby ChuckNorrisHorn on Wed May 31, 2006 9:38 am

what if pujols turns out to be 30 -32 instead of 26 as reported?
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